A fit Victor Osimhen, needless to say, is a nailed-on starter whenever the Nigerian national team takes to the pitch.
The 25-year-old will, however, not be available for the Super Eagles’ upcoming fixtures, a double-header against Libya in the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) qualifiers, having picked up an injury in his last appearance for Turkish outfit Galatasaray – marked by two goals, against Kasimpasa, the latest contributions in a rich vein of form – on loan from parent club Napoli.
Most Nigerians would have rolled their eyes on receiving that news, as it is not the first time in recent years that Osimhen has been sidelined from the national team.
Circumstances, mostly injury-related, have ruled him out of nearly half of the Super Eagles’ last 28 games, going back to the start of Jose Peseiro's tenure as trainer in May 2022, with the checkered fortunes the team has had without its offensive spearhead underlining Osimhen's essence to the national cause.
When Victor Osimhen has been absent
Osimhen has missed a dozen games in that stretch, and the overall trend of results in those games suggest Nigeria's attack operated not quite at peak level when shorn of his presence and attributes upfront.
Seven of those matches (against Mexico, Ecuador, Algeria, Portugal, Guinea, Mali, and Benin) ended in defeat. Of the remaining five, just two, versus Mozambique and Ghana, were won, while the Super Eagles were held by Lesotho, Zimbabwe, and Saudi Arabia.
Without their most prolific forward, Nigeria averaged just a goal per game across those twelve matches, despite the coaches at the helm for those assignments – Peseiro and, very briefly, Finidi George – attempting to fill that void with some of the other attacking personnel at their disposal.
So that is how the Super Eagles have fared in Osimhen's absence; but have they proved any more successful when he has not been missing in action?
When Osimhen has been present
The 16 games Osimhen has featured in during the period under review have indeed been far more fruitful for Nigeria, producing 11 wins and just two defeats.
The Super Eagles have scored 35 goals in those fixtures, with over a third of those strikes registered by Osimhen alone, while he has contributed to five more by assisting.
But even when Osimhen has not been directly involved in scoring, his teammates have fed off the significant threat he poses as well as his hold-up play — an understated part of his game — to provide decisive moments, as was particularly observed during Nigeria's run to the final of the 2024 AFCON.
Super Eagles function do not need to be so reliant on Osimhen
From the statistical breakdown above, it is quite clear that Nigeria are a far more potent side with Osimhen than they are without him, especially in competitive games.
Players such as Ademola Lookman may have emerged as potential and increasingly reliable game-changers in the attacking third for the Super Eagles, but the Galatasaray forward is without doubt still the main man.
That said, his rather regular unavailability means any Nigeria trainer would have to find ways to get the most out of the team's other striking options – something they have not done well enough – if Osimhen's absence is not to hold them back.
Against Libya in the latest international window, it would be interim boss Augustine Eguavoen's responsibility to address that problem.
Eguavoen passed that very challenge fairly well during his last tenure at the helm, cruising through the group stage of Nigeria's 2021 AFCON campaign before crashing out in the Round of 16 to Tunisia, and his ability to do so would be tested again in the next few days.
Hopefully, Eguavoen would have the answers this time, too.
